[ECON20141708]

国民经济学Seminar

 
    国民经济学Seminar由中国人民大学国民经济管理系主办，其宗旨是从国民经济管理的视角，构建一个开放的学术交流平台，推动研究与教学工作。
　　　
　　　时间：2014年11月19日（周三）中午12:00—13:30
　　　地点：明德主楼729会议室
　　　主讲：刘凯 老师
　　　主题：The Impacts of US QE on China’s Business Cycles: A Perspective Based on Dollar Hegemony
　　　摘要：this paper models the US dollar as a global currency and focuses on the spillover effects of the US Quantitative Easing (QE) on China’s economy. Exchange rate targeting and capital controls in the context of dollar hegemony are investigated. Given a positive US money supply shock, both the inflation and real GDP of China will be below their steady state levels in the medium term; while for the US there is no inflation pressure. And the spillover of liquidity effect exists. Given that the US dollars hegemony is not weakened, the regime with liberalized capital accounts and an exchange rate peg to the US dollar for China is best for Chinese households under the US money supply shock. However, when the US dollar is no longer the global reserve currency but instead a supranational reserve currency replaces it, then for China this regime is the worst kind of reform, no matter whether or not the dollar standard in international trade is maintained.　
演讲者介绍：刘凯, 剑桥大学经济学博士。2014年8月进入中国人民大学经济学院国际经济系任教。主要研究领域：经济周期、国际宏观经济学、中国经济问题以及经济增长等。先后在《经济研究》等学术期刊上发表论文多篇，并在Cambridge Working Papers in Economics、IMF working paper等高质量学术平台上提交多篇论文。
有兴趣参与的老师或同学，可与丁守海教授联系（dingshouhai@163.com）。
 
中国人民大学经济学院 2014年11月13日